Current polling suggests that the 2008 election may be an even closer presedential race than the Bush-Gore campaign of eight years ago.
In four national tracking surveys (Research 2000, Diageo/Hotline, Rasmussen Reports, and Gallup) taken between September 12-14, Barack Obama leads in two as does John McCain. Obama’s cumulative advantage in the two polls he leads is four points, while McCain’s cumulative advantage in the two surveys that favor him is an identical four points. Ten states are within the margin of error—meaning the two candidates are separated by less than five percentage points.
Based upon the latest available state-by-state polling, only two places would vote differently today than they did in 2004—Iowa and Colorado, both going from Republican to Democrat. This would still allow McCain to win, however, as the Arizona Senator would claim 270 Electoral Votes to his opponent’s 268.
The thin margins found in so many states may be becoming contagious. Obama received some welcome good news in Virginia yesterday, as Survey USA (9/12-14; 732 likely voters) now posts the Illinois Senator ahead of McCain in the Old Dominion, 50-46%. Conversely in New York, a normally rock-solid Democratic state, the new Siena College poll (9/8-10; 626 likely voters) has McCain pulling to within five points of Obama, 46-41%.
The race for governor in Washington shows a similar trend. Republican challenger Dino Rossi has pulled ahead of Christine Gregoire for the first time since February. The Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Rossi leading the incumbent 52-46%. The same race in 2004 ended in a controversial win for Gregoire that had to be decided by two recounts and state courts.